Are you an investor-holic?
- Feb 13, 2007
- admin
- Investing
DYLAN: HI, MY NAME IS DYLAN AND I’M AN INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR.
ALL OF YOU TOGETHER: Hi Dylan!
Dylan: Thanks for inviting me to share my story. I know how limited
email boxes can be so I appreciate the time.
ONE OF YOU: Thanks for sharing.
DYLAN: Uh, yea…thanks again for having me. Anyway, this is a little
odd for me. I’ve never shared my story at a support group
before… But Marc invited me to speak to ya’ll today… I guess he
thought by telling you my story, I may be able to help you see
past the blind bullishness in the marketplace today.
ONE OF YOU: Keep coming back!
DYLAN: Uh, well, thanks… Let’s see, where do I start?
For those of you who don’t know, I’m the Chief Investment Officer of
Fallen Angel Stocks.
ALL OF YOU: APPLAUSE
DYLAN: Please, please…you’re gonna make me blush…
ALL OF YOU: LAUGHTER
DYLAN: Ok, Ok enough already!
ALL OF YOU: UNCOMFORTABLE SILENCE.
DYLAN: I’m sorry…um, where was I? Oh Yes! Fallen Angel Stocks… Well,
Fallen Angel Stocks is a montly investment newsletter that gives
members objective advice on where they should invest their money.
ONE OF YOU: What’s the website?
DYLAN: Oh, Yes…It’s..um…www.fallenangelstocks.com
But I know we’re all limited on time, so let me get on with it…
I started my investing career at a very early age. I don’t know…
I was probably running away from something or whatever, but for some
reason I just took to it.
At first it wasn’t too bad.
Sure I read the Wall Street Journal and watched CNBC, but I was in
control. I only traded when I thought I could make money.
But, as I’m sure many of you could relate to, my addiction progressed…
Before I knew it I was using Bloomberg and pulling all-nighters watching
market news…
I couldn’t have been more than 19 at the time….(PAUSE)
(DYLAN CHOKES BACK SOME TEARS)
ONE OF YOU: It’s ok…take your time…we’re here for you.
DYLAN: Thanks…thanks very much… But then it got worse. Much worse.
Pretty soon I actually became part of the herd. Whenever Wall Street
became bullish I became bullish.
Whenever Wall Street turned bearish I automatically turned bearish.
Right before I hit Rock Bottom I even found myself repeating what the
television pundits were saying any time I went to a party.
ALL OF YOU: GASP!
DYLAN: Yea, it was bad. I almost lost everything. My ability to think for
myself, my identity….everything…
So I guess that’s why I’m really here today. You’ve all been watching
the news recently, right?
ALL OF YOU: YEA!
DYLAN: Then you know what I mean when I say the last few months have seen
a big disconnect between the performance of the stock market and
underlying fundamentals. In other words, it just seems that most investors
aren’t pricing enough rick into their expectations.
ALL OF YOU: HERE, HERE.
DYLAN: It seems that everywhere I look, folks are ignoring some pretty
dismal fundamentals.
Gosh, one report I read even predicted a 20 percent rise in the S & P this
year! And that was from a “reputable” brokerage firm!
ALL OF YOU: GASP!
DYLAN: So, I guess I’m here today to remind you that sometimes the hardest
thing to do is ignore the headlines and remain faithful to your own investment
philosophy.
It’s a funny thing but sometimes we as investors toss aside our own hard-earned
experience just because the headlines in the papers or the pundits on television
sound like they know what they’re talking about.
But most of them don’t know squat, really. In fact, the single most surprising
thing I learned during my time on the Street was how little most people working
there knew.
(It’s kind of like Hollywood that way: 99% of people spend their time dropping
the names and chasing the deals and copying ideas created by the 1% running things).
So, as we continue our march through 2007, let me share with you what I’m sharing
with members to Fallen Angel Stocks:
As I wrote about last week, don’t forget that regardless of what you hear, 2007
is at an economic tipping point.
And while it’s not a foregone conclusion that the stock market is headed down,
it is a foregone conclusion that the risks of that happening are higher then
at any time in recent years.
Indeed, “CAREFUL” is the watchword as we move through the first quarter.
Since our investment philosophy here at Fallen Angel Stocks is completely
independent of the direction of the stock market nothing much around here is
going to change: We’re still going to make the bulk of our money buying great
companies at cheap prices.
Whatever your own investment philosophy, I have one big nugget of advice
to share with all of you today:
Don’t get caught up believing the hype of the headlines: Making investment
decisions based on what you read as opposed to what you know is a very fast
way to the poor-house.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: What do you mean by “hype of the headlines”?
ANOTHER AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yeah, what do you mean when you say to make investment
decisions based on what you know, not based on the headlines you read?
DYLAN: A real quick example of that is what’s been going on in the housing
market:
From mid December to February 1st, the “experts” began to suggest that
the housing market had hit bottom. These experts included government officials
and other groups such as national real estate associations.
But any listener to an earnings call of any major home builder would have heard
CEO’s who sounded far less certain of that then many of the “experts” themselves
sounded.
Now I don’t know about you but I’d take the opinion of a CEO who is in the
actual battlefield over an academic who spends his day reading data.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Are you saying we can’t trust government experts?
DYLAN: No. What I am saying is simply to consider the source of the information
you’re reading.
Many of these groups know that investing is all about mass psychology and their main
goal is to avoid a financial panic, which would make things worse for everybody.
But taking them seriously would be like taking a cancer study conducted by Phillip
Morris in the 1970’s seriously: not a great idea!
ALL OF YOU: APPLAUSE.
DYLAN: Thank you, thank you. Yea, you in the back. Do you have a question sir?
DUDE IN THE BACK: Where can we find out what stocks you’re buying?
DYLAN: That’s easy. Go to www.fallenangelstocks.com.
Feel free to sign up for a free 30-day trial….it’s on me.
ALL OF YOU: RESOUNDING APPLAUSE.
DYLAN: Thanks for letting me share.